Feasibility Analysis of 2025 Iran Health Roadmap Implementation

The Ministry of Health and Medical Education of Iran in 2016 established a 2025 road map for the treatment sector to more carefully plan for the development of strategic health resources to achieve essential standards. This road map estimated the required human capital, health care facility, hospital beds, and emergency facility. The current study aimed to assess the costs of implementing the road map and its feasibility for the health care system.

We used the 2015 costs of achieving each goal in the road map to estimate the costs in the next 10 years. Similarly, we calculated the accessible resources of the health system in the same year. We proposed different possible scenarios to implement the road map based on the costs being higher than resources.

In 2025, the highest cost of the road map will go to human capital (71%), followed by providing equipped hospital beds (20%), while providing equipment will have the least share of costs (1.1%). According to the basic scenario, considering the 10 to 16% annual inflation rate, 10 to 14% increased rate of wages, 3 to 5% economic growth, and 7 to 8% GDP share of health system expenditure, the health system can implement 80% of the road map in 2015.

Considering the Iran economic turmoil after finalizing the road map, it is necessary to revise the resources of the health care system and reduce the costs of the road map for the complete implementation of the map.