Evaluation of climate change impacts on water resource sustainability in river basins using the water footprint scarcity indicators

The unsustainable development and imbalance between supply and demand of water and its intensification in climate change are the most important issues in water resource management in Iran. This reveals the need to consider climate change on renewable water sources and water use. Therefore the current status and climate change of the basin have been assessed by integrating a comprehensive basin simulation approach using the SWAT model and the water footprint assessment framework. This framework used for assessing the stability of the basin and its potential impacts on water resources, agriculture and the environment. Therefore, assessment of basin status and climate change was carried out by calculating green water, blue water, groundwater and environmental sustainability indices. Simulation and analysis of the water resources system and agricultural sector under the climate change condition were done during the period (2017-2046) coupled results of three general circulation models under the three emission scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Evaluation of the sustainability indicators in the current situation indicates the instability of groundwater and the environmental requirement of Lake Tashk-Bakhtegan. The results also showed that under climate change conditions, by reducing 7 to 18 percent of available water and increasing of 6 to 10 percent of the water footprint of the hydrological basin status will be more critical.