The Effect of Climatic Variables on Probability of Pea Cultivating Decision and Its Yield in Iran: Application of Spatial Heckman Model

Legumes, as the second most important source of food after grains, account for 770,000 hectares of annual crops cultivation area in Iran. About 61.3 percent of the legumes cultivation area was allocated to the pea production, some 97.7 percent of which included the rainfed legumes. Given the high contribution of rainfed cultivation, it is expected that climate change will have a major impact on the yield of pea. So, this study aimed at investigating the effect of climate change on the probability of deciding to cultivate pea product and its yield using the spatial Heckman model. The model was estimated by using agronomic data of pea and meteorological and geographical information of 336 counties of the country during 2012-2013. According to the study findings, spatial contiguity, human influence index and wind speed affected the probability of deciding to cultivate the pea plant, and the spatial contiguity, wind speed, precipitation and irrigation were the most important factors affecting the pea yield. Therefore, production of drought resistant varieties of chickpea as well as more attention to the management of water resources and application of efficient water storage methods in the production areas of this product such as Kermanshah, Lorestan, Kordestan and West Azarbayjan provinces were recommended.