An Analysis of Key Factors Influencing the Spatial Balanced Development of Cities with a Forecasting Approach Case Study: Guilan Province

The main purpose of this study is to identify and analyze key factors affecting the spatial development of cities in Guilan province. In this regard, this research has been carried out during the following steps. Questionnaire and Delphi technique were used for data collection. In the first step, 60 factors affecting the spatial development of Guilan province were identified based on documentation studies in three dimensions of population, activity and space. In the second stage, the factors affecting the spatial development of Guilan province were extracted through the Delphi method and based on the experts' point of view. A questionnaire was designed and provided to the experts. In this questionnaire, experts were asked to rate each factor in the Likert scale. Finally, after collecting the questionnaires, the mean score for each factor was determined and finally 28 factors from three dimensions (population, activity, and space) were selected for analysis in the Mac software. Finally, based on the Interaction Impact Analysis method, there are 5 key factors including knowledge-based activities, specialty settlements for deploying high technology industries, rail transport, maritime transport capacity, and diverse modes of integrated transport (Rail- Water - Road - Air) was introduced for spatial balanced development in Guilan province