Futures Studies of Agricultural Engineering Research Institute in 1404

Sustainable agricultural development and national food security while preserving the health and the quality of crops depend on the development of knowledge-based agriculture. To advance knowledge-based agriculture, observing national and global developments in the future and coordinating its activities with the fluctuating changes in science and technology is the keystone. Due to the special position of research institutes in the achievement of knowledge-based agriculture, it is essential for these institutes to carry out the research based on scientific and technological world evolutions. So, in this research, alternative futures of the Agricultural Engineering Research Institute (AERI) considered as a knowledge-based research institute in the field of agricultural technology. The present study was based-on descriptive-analytical and survey methods. The statistical population of this research includes agricultural experts, researchers of AERI, agricultural managers, certified agricultural equipment producers, and beneficiaries. To collect data, a questionnaire, a library study and a panel of expert’s methods were used. Based on a literature review and panel of experts the questionnaires were designed in three steps, and their validity and reliability were measured. The GBN method was used to develop scenarios. In this research, the trend analysis was carried out. So, the driving forces affecting the future of AERI were identified. After determining the uncertainty of driving forces, the scenario matrix was determined and future scenarios of AERI designed. Three scenarios such as the common future, desired future, and hard-time future were designed based on the scenario matrix.