Reducing the Risk of Drought Impact on Isfahan’s Habitation; Presenting a Strategic Plan by Analysis of Interconnected Decision Area

The most important consequences of climate change are the occurrence of drought in different parts of the world (especially Iran), which has encountered urban and rural settlements with various crises. One of the ways to deal with this phenomenon is to plan a Disaster (Drought) Risk Reduction plan that is part of a crisis-specific agenda for urban planning and management. The purpose of this study is to identify, measure, and prioritize the effects of drought on habitation in Isfahan; and present strategic planning agendas resulting from compatible and prioritized scenarios derived from the Analysis of Interconnected Decision Area related to reducing the risk of drought crisis.

In this descriptive-analytical research, at first, by using delphi technique, the effective factors on habitation activity were identified, and in the next step, these impacts were assessed through social scrolling using a residents’ questionnaire in Isfahan with 384 samples by non-random quota sampling. Twenty impact which have higher mean score, extracted and then by entering into the process of the problematic strategic spatial planning process and applying the Analysis of Interconnected Decision Area techniques, compatible and prioritized scenarios of the program are designed. It should be noted that during the above-mentioned step, the scenarios are prioritized based on the results of semi-quantitative risk assessment.

The results indicate that the impacts of “river drying and madies”, “the dissatisfaction and distrust between civil society and decision makers”, “life expectancy transformation”, “air quality change” and “increased physical health vulnerability” are highest risk of habitation in Isfahan.

The top scenario among the nine areas of decision-making areas consists of eight areas including “urban design”, “vitality”, “public participation”, “urban management”, “modern technologies”, “physical health” and “lifestyle”.