Assessing impact of climate change on the invasion risk of Prosopis juliflora in natural ecosystems of Iran

Prosopis juliflora is among the most problematic invasive species globally, and the negative effects of its biological invasion has targeted natural ecosystems of semi-tropical to arid lands of the Earth. High reproduction and dispersal capabilities and incredible tolerance and adaptability to new ecological conditions has led to the expansion of its distribution, reduction in native biodiversity and changes in community structure of the invaded areas. Since the eradication of invasive species is expensive and time-consuming, identifying areas that are exposing to the invasion of the species in the future, particularly due to the effects of climate change, provides an applicable tool for ecosystem planning and management. In this research using the concept of ecological niche modeling (ENM) and maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model, and also different climatic models and scenarios the impact of climate change on the global distribution of the species was assessed. Evaluating the impacts of climate change revealed a remarkable range expansion to upper latitudes by 2050. In a global scale North America, Mediterranean Basin and Middle East, and in a country scale in Iran, in addition to the southern provinces, habitats of central Iranian plateau including South Khorasan, Kerman, Fars, Semnan and Razavi Khorasan will be experiencing the highest range expansion of the species. the results of this study could be used as an efficient tool to implement broad-scale and priority-setting monitoring programs in natural ecosystems.