Modeling occurrence and the spread of forest fire using cellular automata approach (Case Study: Arasbaran protected area)

Each year fire damages the natural environment remarkably. Cellular automata is a way of modeling and simulating processes in the real world. We can take precautionary steps toward preventing fire and damages after, by knowing how it spreads and providing risk plans. In this research, the fire risk model has been used for modeling fire occurrence which is composed of factors such as slope, slope direction, vegetation cover, and prevailing wind direction. During this process, areas with a high risk of fire have been determined and by using the cellular automata model. In this model, the Alexandridis method in MATLAB was used. it became possible to simulate the fire spread model of Arasbaran forests in the northwest of Iran. This area holds the record of most fire statistics in the whole province and considering huge resources of flora and fauna available there, it is essential to protect this area most of all from fire. Results have shown that 56.36% of this area is highly exposed to fire. Slope gradient and slope direction are two important factors in the start and spreading of fire. Human factors play a great role in the development of fire. also, results indicate that using cellular automata along with GIS, not only accelerates the simulation of fire but also it has great accuracy.