Explaining the Hazards of Inefficient Self-Sufficiency Policies on Resources in Iran Water

In this paper we use the exploring technique as one of the integrated research methods. Data has been gathered using library and documentary methods, surfing the internet for national and international scientific databases such as FAO. Focusing on the self-sufficiency policy in agricultural crops and to analyze the impact of this policy on water resources, wheat has been selected. We used data gathered from the statistical consensus and ministry of energy. Also, we used the data of FAO to analyze the production, consumption, imports, exports and the amount of the wheat cultivation in Iran. The self–sufficiency in producing wheat has been calculated by the use of self-Sufficiency Ratio Index and the Import Dependency Ratio. We forecasted the amount of production and consumption of wheat by ARIMA time series model. It is found that the self-sufficiency policy in Iran has been introduced just on the basis of political attitudes and not relying on the environment potentials. Therefore, this procedure will not lead to sustainable development and food security. Due to having a unilateral self-sufficiency policy and disregarding other real potentials of products in Iran, the amount of production would be increased while the amount of imports might be limited or prohibited. Because of the increasing production rates without considering the environment potentials and production advantages, we are facing new crises in natural assets including water and soil resources. If this trend continues, environmental hazards will be expanded. Our results imply that self-sufficiency policy did not only achieve its aims to produce strategic food crops, but it had negative effect on the plains and water resources too. If this trend continues, ecologic power will be reduced and natural resources will be destroyed. It is necessary to integrate the policy of self-sufficiency with that of food sustainable supply. It means that self-sufficiency policy should be replaced with environmentally friend and optimum usage of the country resources and supply food from abroad, sustainably.