Trend Analysis of Iran's Macroeconomics Main Variables and its Impact on Health Indicators

Investigating the effect of macroeconomic variables on health indicators can provide the ability to predict the effect of economic fluctuations on health in addition to health policy makers' awareness of the impact of economic variables on health level. The purpose of this study was to analyze the trend of the main variables of Iran's macroeconomics and their impact on Iran's health indicators.

The present study was a descriptive-analytical study. In this study, in order to identify the impact of economic fluctuations on public health, the trend of 4 decades (19712011-) fluctuation of macroeconomic and public health indices were analyzed. Health indicators were collected from the World Bank database and macroeconomic indicators from the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Iranian Statistics Center. To identify the relationship between variables, the VAR model estimated and the Granger causality test used. Regression models and statistical tests run by using eviews7 econometrics software.

The growth of "per capita income", "income inequality", and "unemployment rate" had statistically significant effect on life expectancy and mortality in children under 5 years (P <0.05) and Granger causality test also confirmed the effect. Although the "exchange rate disorder" had a statistically significant effect on life expectancy (P <0.05), its effect on mortality of children under 5 years was not significant (P> 0.05). Among macroeconomic variables, the effect of income inequality on health indicators was more than other variables.

Among macroeconomic variables, the effect of income inequality is larger and long lasting than other variables. By adopting income redistribution policies, the government can control the effects of economic fluctuations on the society's health through reducing income inequality.