Evaluating the Future of Employment and Unemployment, With an Approach to General Policies of Employment

Considering the importance of unemployment in the context of resistive economics, the present study has tried to predict the future of this influential variable for Golestan Province using future research method. For this purpose, the present study was designed to simulate 11 scenarios for demand and 3 scenarios for labor supply, and a total of 33 different scenarios for unemployment and employment rates for women and men in the province. Finally, according to the experts, the probability of the scenarios was assessed and the most probable scenario for unemployment rate in Golestan province was identified. According to the results of the study, in 2027 the unemployment rate would be 19.4% for men and 25.9% for women, and unemployment rate of the province would be 20.5%. On the other hand, Golestan province must create 7965 net annual jobs in order to remain in its current state of unemployment (2015 unemployment rate) in the period 2018-2027. Therefore, to overcome this challenge and turn it into an opportunity for growth and development, it is essential that provincial planners design a targeted structure for the province’s labor market management.