Human resources future studies in NAJA, using integrative method of scenario writing and cross-impact analysis

Organizational personnel, human resources or in recent approach human capital, are the most important resources of any organization that their foresight is necessary because they are aware of the time and futurable. In this regard, the present study attempts using two methods of the foresight which are cross-impact effects analysis and scenario planning, first to identify and analysis of the key driving agents and then formulate human resource the main scenarios Ahead of the NAJA. Time horizon of the present study is the 2025. Primary data of research was collected using semi-open interviews of managers and senior experts with experience in the field of Human resources in the NAJA and analyzed by Mick Mac software. Finally, the results of utilizing cross-impact analysis indicated that Four key agents: 1-replace the technology instead of humans, 2-development of electronic commerce, 3- increasing urbanization and metropolitan growth, 4-domination of technology in the social and economic areas between 16 identified agents in the interview phase would have the greatest impact on the future of human resources in NAJA. Such agents were used in the following as the basis agents in scenario writing. Plausible state sets of this agents, clearly determine nodes and policy pathways for managers. In order to scenario writing at this stage, specialized experts were polled and eventually by pluralizing them, 12 possible states for 4 agents were defined. Plausible state for any agent covered a range of unfavorable to favorable states. With analysis carried out by the scenario wizard software, 2 strong scenarios and 16 believable scenarios extracted, based on 12 plausible statuses regarding to 4 driving keys.