Threat concept development based on tolerability and a decision support system for threat evaluation using logical statements and discrete-Value evidences

Threat is one the most important key parameters in naval operation command and control systems. Fast dynamic and time constraints which is exist in the nature of the of naval mission make threat evaluation a very complex task for operators who simultaneously experience a large amount of stress and cognitive load. Therefore a kind of decision support system is needed for threat evaluating to help the operators achieving more accurate and reliable results. Threat evaluation process starts with decomposing threat concept to its fundamental element: intent, capability and opportunity and then generating some indexes for analyzing them. In this paper a remarkable conceptual development is proposed for threat evaluation. A novel fundamental element called tolerability is added to the conventional threat elements and some creative indexes designed for evaluating it. Also a new logical approach is used for scoring the threat elements based on real world discrete valued evidences. A decision support system exploring all of these evidences and assign quantitative value to the threat basic elements. Finally a five dimension array used to find a value for threat. The proposed method is tested with a naval scenario the output threat prioritized list of targets compared with experts advices.