Identification of driving forces, uncertainties and future scenarios of Iran's environment

Global macro trends on the one hand, and domestic trends and effective factors on the other, have put the future of the Iran's environment in a state of uncertainty with concern. In a complex and unpredictable environment, the use of scenario thinking (based on identifying and detecting future drivers and uncertainties) can provide tangible and comprehensible images of consistent or probable futures in multiple scenarios. The purpose of this study was to describe the stories and develop images of the future of the Iran's environment in the form of consistent and probable scenarios.

The method used in this study was a scenario-based planning which was designed and implemented in eight steps. The method of data collection in this study was qualitative using interview, expert panel and Delphi survey. Micmac software and Scenario wizard software were used for data analysis.

The findings of this study can be divided into two parts. The first section included identifying and classifying key factors, driving forces and related uncertainties. In this regard, five driving forces including "population", "global warming", "environmental discourse", "development process management" and "technologies" were identified and the influence/dependence relationships among the factors were analyzed. The second section identified and described possible and consistent scenarios based on the relevant drivers and uncertainties.

Based on the research findings, five probable and consistent scenarios including: (a) the secret of survival, (b) management against the land, (c) climate migration, (d) the return of the cranes and (e) technology against the land, were explained and compared. Understanding the narratives of each scenario and comparing their desirability enable actors and decision makers to influence the process of creating the future. Accordingly, the development of environmentally friendly technologies as well as eco management, are the basis for planning future actions in this field.