Evaluation of the impact of river bed land use change on amount and severity of floods (Case Study: Ardak River)

In recent years, the increasing possession and changing in land use of river bed not only have posed a threat to healthy water availability, but also have increased the risk of floods, as droughts continue. Managing water resources and converting flood water into a divine gift is impossible without understanding and analyzing the response of hydrological components to climate change and human interference, including changing in the land use of river bed. This study was performed in 2017 in Ardak River Basin, Mashhad. The ASTER satellite images and HEC-GeoHMS software were used to outline catchment boundaries and extract its physical parameters. The existing river bed map and its periphery were prepared and added as a new layer to the basin land-use map. By integrating land-use maps and soil hydrological groups of basin in GIS environment, the CN map of catchment area and average CN of each sub-basin were calculated. After entering data into HEC-HMS model, the model was run and flood was simulated with different return periods. Land use and soil hydrological group maps were reformed. Then the new CN map and the average CN of each sub-basin were determined and introduced to the model based on the changes in the land-use map. The HEC-HMS model was re-run for the conditions where the mean CN of the sub-basins changed and their other characteristics remain constant was ran. The results showed that by changing the riverbed land use to agriculture, the maximum flood discharge and runoff volume decreased while the decrease rate reduced with increasing flood return periods. As for floods with 25 year return period, due to changing land use of river bed, maximum flood discharge and runoff volume  decreased by 3.3% and 2.6%, respectively.