Projection of Climate Change Impacts on Potential Distribution of Chestnut-leaved oak (Quercus castaneifolia C.A.M.) Using Ensemble Modeling in the Hyrcanian Forests of Iran

The studies show that the mean temperature of the Hyrcanian region has been increased by 0.74 siliceous degrees in the twenty recent years. In this research, the current and future distribution of Chestnut-leaved oak (Quercus castaneifolia C.A.M.) was studied using an ensemble method including five different species distribution models. We used five general circulation models under two reprehensive concentration pathway (RCPs) to project the impact of climate change on the distribution of Chestnut-leaved oak by 2070. Also, the stable, gained and lost suitable habitat of Chestnut-leaved oak were determined using range size change analyses under climate change. The results showed that the area of suitable habitats with high certainty would be increased by 16.80%, while it would be decreased by 29.80% under RCP 8.5 by 2070. The results of the range size analyses of oriental beech showed 54.12% of suitable habitat would be stable under RCP 4.5 while it would be decreased by 23.85% under RCP 8.5 by 2070. Also, the gained suitable habitats would be 62.68% and 42.36% under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. It is suggested that the climate change impacts should be considered in the management decisions and conservation plans related to the Chestnut-leaved oak in the Hyrcanian forests. Further, the suitability of habitats under climate change should be accounted for plantation and reforestation by Chestnut-leaved oak.