Time and Cost Simulation of Forest Roads Construction Using Monte Carlo analysis

Project time and cost are one of the issues and challenges that employers and contractors are facing whit them especially in the forest area. One of the most effective tools that used in prediction and risk analysis is Monte Carlo analysis that Based on the production of random numbers, the number of single components of a set is computed and find out their effect on the whole set. In the traditional approach to project control that still dominates in most national projects, estimating the probable time and budget of the project is still unpredictable to managers and experts. In this work, we tried to present a model for considering the probability and risk in estimating the probability of completion of the project by given time and cost of project termination in a forest area using a case study and software capabilities (Primavera Pertmaster). The results of the probability distribution revealed that the probability of reaching the predicted budget was approximately 13% according to the Monte Carlo simulation. However, the difference between the maximum and minimum values varies from 39 to 650 million IRR, which results in a high risk of the operation of the land operations, which indicates the high risk of the earthwork operation. The real cost of earthwork (570 million IRR) in the study area at the cost allocation chart is estimated at 90%, which also confirms the riskiness of the road earthwork project. Finally, the Monte Carlo simulation method, with the successful prediction of the risk of earthwork operation project, showed that there is an acceptable way for contractors and forest road designers to deal with the negative aspects of the project. The results of this research can be used as a guide to better management of forest for future operations.