Analysis of Temporal Changes of Dust Events and Determination of the Contribution of Climate Factors Affecting it in Arid Regions Based on the Ridge Regression Analysis (A Case Study: Yazd City)

The purpose of this study was to analyze the temporal variations of dust phenomenon and its relationship with the climatic elements in Yazd city, located near one of the critical centers of dust production in the center of Iran. For this purpose, the Dust Storm Index was first calculated. After the standardization of precipitation, temperature, maximum wind speed, average wind speed, relative humidity and, dust storm index, the co-linearity effect between variables was calculated by using inflation variance factor. Then, several regression models were prepared based on the optimal Ridge parameter. The performance of the models was evaluated based on the determination coefficient, F value and Root Mean Square Error. Finally, by using the most accurate model, the impact of climate parameters on the dust events changes was determined. The results showed that the incidence of dust events in the spring was more than the rest of the year. Based on the optimal model (Model 12), it was found that the main factor influencing the dust storm index variations in different seasons was the surface winds speed. It was also shown that 39%, 25%, 46% and 31% of dust storm index changes in winter, spring, summer, and autumn were due to the interaction of the five climatic parameters studied in this study.