A System Dynamics Approach to Designing Technological Innovation Management Model in Downstream Petrochemical Industries

Special attention to the relative advantages of the economy is the best way toward economic development in every country. Owing to its considerable natural oil and gas resources, Iran has a high potential for the development of these industries. In the value chain process of these God-given resources, a wide diversity of final downstream petrochemical products has a significant charm and scope for technological innovation and development. In the absence of a systematic perspective, all the planning and costs in this field will fail. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to design and analyze the dynamic model of technological innovation management in petrochemical downstream industries in Iran. A questionnaire was designed by analyzing the research literature and the opinions of the experts; then, the factors were investigated using verification factor analysis and structural equations with Smart PLS; the final 26 indicators were categorized in four domains including firm, industry, national, and international. Next, using system thinking and Vensim PLE 6.4, the technology innovation management structure was designed in the downstream industries. The behavior of key variables was also predicted for a 7-year time horizon. Finally, it was used to formulate the technology innovation management scenario.