Explaining the Married Women’s Fertility in Reproductive Ages in Iran Using Hierarchical Linear Model

Regarding changes in women’s fertility in Iran, this study attempted to explain fertility changes of married women aged 15-49 years old in Iran at individual and province level.

The data were extracted from the Census 2016 and some of the province data were analyzed based on hierarchical linear model through HLM software.

The findings showed that individual characteristics had a larger impact on fertility than province characteristics impact. Women's fertility difference by province was significant. All individual characteristics had a significant impact on fertility and it explained a total of 44% of variance of women's fertility. Also, about 46% of variance of interprovincial childbearing was explained through characteristics for provinces in this study.

Since currently the socio-economic development indexes are sub-optimal, more intense decline in fertility is likely and the relative continuity of the current fertility level is to be expected.