Designing an Expert System for Intelligent Management of Earthquake-Induced Crisis in Tehran

Earthquake is one of the eminent dangers that threaten the lives of people in Tehran. Therefore, the urban management administration should make the best decisions for prevention and safeguard measures after the occurrence of this natural event. Due to the psychological effects of the crisis time in the managers' decision-making, necessarily a mechanism independent of the crisis effects should be designed that analyzes the urban situation and provides crisis management proposals. Tehran consists of 22 zones that are located on 13 faults. Hence in this paper we design and present an expert system which uses process pattern and takes important physical and urban concepts indices, as well as the factors that are identified by the Center for Vibration Detection as input, and offers the necessary plan to take appropriate measures relating to each of the 22 zones’ safety centers in Tehran. This plan offers the best actions for each region in the event of an earthquake, according to the indicators of the region. The purpose of this paper is making crisis management smart in order to minimize damage in the event of an earthquake. Finally, to evaluate and compare the proposed method with Mercalli and Richter methods, the occurrence of a hypothetical earthquake in Ozgol area of region number 1 of Tehran was assumed, and a program preview implemented. The results show that the method presented in this article is more precise than Richter and Mercalli methods in proposing the provisional measures for the mentioned earthquake, due to the effectiveness of various factors in this method.