Analysis of Cash Subsidy Opportunity for Siminehrood Watershed Farmers to Change Cropping Pattern to Restore Lake Urmia

In this study, the possibility of change in cropping in the Siminehrood watershed was evaluted by paying cash subsidies for farmers to restore Lake Urmia. Therefore, the scenarios of 0, 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90, and 100% reduction of high water requirement cultivation to low water water requirement (wheat) cropping were analyzed to reduce water consumption in the agricultural sector. On the other hand, the decrease in the net income of farmers as well as government incentives was calculated for each scenario. The results showed that, in the zero scenario (current state), about 0.6 billion m3 of water is used in the agricultural lands of the watershed, which had an income of 5813.14 billion IRR. In the Eleventh scenario (100% of high water requirement cultivation areas to wheat cropping), the water use rate is reduced by 73% compared to the current state (scenario 0), which will require the government to pay people a subsidy of 3107.44 billion IRR in one year. Ultimately, the water savings from the 10 to 100% cropping changes scenarios will be 25 to 253 million m3.