Uncertainty Analysis of Solute Contaminant Transport Simulation in Groundwater

Groundwater is one of the main sources for supplying needs, including drinking water and agriculture.With increasing human and climate pressures on groundwater resources, accurate forecasts of groundwater flow and quality for sustainable management are essential. Underground water quality modeling is a useful tool for identifying how to transfer pollutants in a the porous aquifer. These models include several parameters that are often estimated based on previous studies or expert judgment, Or in the best cases, based on Measurements in plaeses . In conclusion, the input data to the simulation models are not accurate and are accompanied by errors, so it is necessary to first define the effective and sensitive parameters relative to the outputs of the model.In this paper, a problem with the MODFLOW-2010 and MT3DMS programs was first simulated and the desired pollutant concentrations in wells were estimated according to the parameters given over a two-year period. Sensitivity analysis for time outs and Maximum concentration has been done during these two years. According to the statistical characteristics of the outputs, effective parameters are estimated on the maximum concentration and time. The results show that the effective parameters on the concentration of solute pollutants in the wells are 1 ) Reduction coefficient 2) Distribution coefficient 3) Longitudinal diffusion 4) Hydraulic conductivity 5) Transverse diffusion coefficient 6) Porosity Respectively.effective parameters on the time associated with the maximum concentration in the well operation are 1) Hydraulic conductivity 2) Distribution coefficient 3) Porosity 4) Transverse distribution coefficient 5) Reduction coefficient 6) Longitudinal diffusion.