Dynamic Simulation of Welfare Damage Caused by Iran's Economic Activities

The main economic feature of this study is the creation of pollution in the process of economic growth and its negative impact on community welfare. This article analyzes the welfare loss of pollution resulting from production in Iranian economy using an augmented growth model and designing an economic-ecological system dynamics model. The aim of this study is to investigate the transfer of clean technology and environmental preferences of producers and consumers to pollution emissions and its impact on environmental quality and community welfare. In order to analyze the pattern, elements include functions, production, physical and human capital, accumulation of pollution, income distribution, and initial conditions, consumer utility and welfare. Regarding 2011 as a base year, the time path of per capita pollution and related welfare loss are simulated for the Iranian economy over the 20-year time horizon. in this research , welfare has been simulated in different scenarios including the diffusion of clean technology, preferences of producers and consumers. The results indicate that the amount of pollution emissions diffusion and welfare losses in economic activities increases with the increase in production and simulation results also confirm the trend. The simulation results indicate that with persistence of the status quo, pollution, emission pollution and its welfare loss rise with positive rate. The results show that by implementing the scenario of increasing the parameters of clean technology diffusion and environmental preferences of producers and consumers have an adverse effect on the rate of pollution and pollution emissions and welfare damages. By implementing the clean technology diffusion transfer scenario to 45% of the amount of pollution and the welfare damage due to it in 2031, will decrease by 60 % and 0.01 % , respectively. By implementing the scenario of environmental preferences of producers in the amount of 2 values of pollution, and welfare damages in 2031 will be reduced to 64.07 and 0.01 percent, respectively. Finally, by implementing the scenario of environmental preferences of consumers, the welfare damage caused by pollution in 1410 will be reduced to 0.02 percent.