Isfahan Metropolitan Resilience Predictive Model in Crisis and Unexpected Incidents

The prominence of Resilient Cities theory, presented in the joint chapter of Urban Planning and Disaster Management Knowledge, is a future-oriented approach to comprehensively look at all elements of community survival alongside a set of critical and controlling factors, especially human factors. Along this path, mathematical modeling enables the relevance and impact of components as well as the monitoring of the resilience foresight process. The purpose of the present study is to evaluate the existing resilience, determine the main factors and their effectiveness in promoting resilience of Isfahan metropolitan area by modeling.

The general method of research is descriptive-analytical and in terms of purpose, it is infrastructural and applied. To determine the dimensions and indices of measurement, and to further evaluate the resilience, 50 experts were interviewed using Delphi method and then data were analyzed using SPSS software and R programming, and results were presented in the form of "Multivariate Regression Model. which was applied for six dimensions of resilience and the whole city.

Surveys show high and direct correlation between indicators of “social”, “cultural”, “physical-spatial”, “natural environment”, “economic” and “institutional-legal” resilience, based on correlation analysis. Isfahan metropolitan resilience of 2.87, in the range of five levels, is almost average.

The highest level of cultural resilience occurred at 3.08 and the lowest at 2.56 in the economic domain. Therefore, the first priority of planning resilience upgrades in terms of quantity is the "economic" domain and also the "institutional-legal" dimension of 0.200 given the level of effectiveness in the "Resilience Upgrading Regression Model", and the last priority in these two observation is 'cultural dimension' with respect to quantity and 'natural environment' with an impact factor of 0.147.