Empirical Evidence of The Role of Management Optimism on Stock Returns

The usefulness of studying stock returns is that stock returns change as a measure of risk and can be used as a tool to measure the extent of stock market vulnerability. Personality traits of managers are one of the important factors in decision making about stock returns. One of the most important personality characteristics of managers is the excessive self-confidence; managers are optimistic about future corporate earnings and future cash flows and have a positive outlook on future risks and returns. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to examine the empirical evidence of the role of management optimism on stock returns. The research method used among the companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange is a quasi-experimental, post-event quasi-experimental design, and a sample of 159 company was investigated using multivariate regression during the period of 2012-2017. The results of the research showed that there is a negative and significant relationship between capital expenditure growth and stock returns, and there is a positive and significant relationship between the amount of surplus investment in assets and stock returns, but there is no significant difference between the earnings forecast of each share and the actual profit with stock returns. No significant relationship was found.