Identification of Effective Key Factors in the Future of Arvandrood Hydro-politics

Arvandrood is one of the common water resources in West Asia, which according to current geopolitics conditions has a special sensibility and position in different historical periods between Iran and Iraq relationship that has been affected by the ways of exploiting and ownership. The last disagreement relating to this subject had led to 8 years of war between the two countries and occurrence of vast human and economic casualties for the two countries. Thus, the need for adoption a suitable strategy in diplomatic relationship between Iran and Iraq towards ways of managing and exploiting of this common water resource is crucial.

In this research, in the first step by studying previous related academic documentaries and records and using opinions of 12 experts, 48 factors affecting the future of Arvandrood hydro-politics determined, and in the second step by formation of expert panel, similar factors merged and 26 of them were identified. Then by using the Friedman model, 12 important and effective factors were specified. Finally, by using the future studies software Micmac and Crossover Matrix Analysis Method, the key factors were identified.

5 effective key factors in the future of Arvandrood hydropolitics were identified.

The results show that Iran must provide the growth and developments of cities and ports near Arvand and negotiate and participate with Turkey and Iraq based on the amount of water supply in Arvand River.