Using Soil Properties to Estimate the Irrigated Wheat Yield in Agricultural Lands of Nazarabad Region in Alborz Province

The yield of Wheat is influenced by various factors including climate, land management practices and soil properties. It is important to investigate the relations between soil physical and chemical properties and the yield of wheat. In this study, the physical and chemical properties of the soil top layer (0-30 cm) and the yield of Wheat were determined in 34 wheat fields of Nazarabad region in Alborz province, during wheat crop year of 2018. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to select the effective parameters on wheat yield and multivariate linear regression was applied to analyze the relationship between wheat yield and soil properties. Finally four regression equations were presented. Principal Component Analysis (PCA), stepwise linear regression, the highest correlation method and all the measured properties were used respectively to prepare four equations to estimate the Wheat yield. The evaluation of each equation was performed by Geometric Mean Error Ratio (GMER), Geometric Standard Deviation of the Error Ratio (GSDER), Normalized Root Mean Squared Error (NRMSE), and determination coefficient (R2). The results showed that wheat yield varies from 2750 to 10500 kg/ha in the region and the proposed equation using clay, Pava, Cu, porosity, calcium carbonate equivalent and pH with GMER, GSDER, NRMSE and R2 values of 0.99, 1.19, 0.17, and 0.64 respectively, is the most appropriate equation for determining of wheat yield. Therefore, in regions with climatic conditions and soil physical and chemical properties similar to the study area, the yield of wheat can be estimated with an acceptable level, based on the proposed equation.