The Formulation of Livability Scenarios of Rural Areas based on the Principles of Futures StudiesCase Study of Eslamabad-e-Gharb County

The present study was conducted in order to formulate livability scenarios of rural areas based on the principles of futures studies of villages in Eslamabad-e-Gharb County. This study was applied-theoretical and descriptive-analytical in terms of the purpose and the nature based on the approach of futures studies. The scope of this research was rural villages of Eslamabad-e-Gharb and the statistical population included 30 experts in the field of the livability issue who were selected purposefully. The Delphi method, the Micmac software, and the Scenario Wizard software have been used for data analysis. The results of the research showed that 30 items were effective in the livability of villages in Eslamabad-e-Gharb. Because all values obtained from the T test in different dimensions were significantly lower than the error level of 5%, a collective agreement was reached among the experts on the proposed items with a 95% confidence level. The results of the Micmac software showed that 11 factors played a key role in the livability. Subsequently, using the scenario analysis, 42 probable scenarios were designed for 14 key factors. After analyzing possible situations using the Scenario Wizard software, 3 strong scenarios, 2,818 poor scenarios, and 25 believable scenarios have been obtained. Among these three scenario groups, 25 believable scenarios have been selected as desirable scenarios for the livability planning of villages in Eslamabad-e-Gharb. This scenario has been analyzed using the inductive method and was divided into three scenarios: golden, believable, and catastrophic.