Zoning the Structural Vulnerability Index Due to Climate Change (SVCCI) (Case study: Kurdistan province)

Future climate fluctuations are one of the greatest challenges facing humankind, which have a profound effect on soil and water as a source of agricultural production. One of the methods for assessing the caused damage is the calculation of the structural vulnerability index due to climate change or index (SVCCI). In this study, the index is calculated in Kurdistan province.

In this study, using data from 11 meteorological stations in the period 1380-1396 for 10 cities of Kurdistan province, the index was calculated. To calculate the components of the index, it is necessary to calculate the precipitation index, drought index and potential evapotranspiration in the region. Then, for each of the index components, the trend and instability in the trend were examined by non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. Then weighting was done in different ways and finally, due to the different units of the index components of each component, the components were normalized by means of the equation (CN) and based on the results of calculating the index, the damage and the most susceptible areas in Kurdistan province to the fluctuations of climatic factors were identified.

The results of this indicator showed that the mean value of the index in the cities of Kurdistan province is 51.4. Meanwhile, Dehgolan city has the highest vulnerability and Saravabad has the least amount of vulnerability compared to the climate change fluctuations.

The purpose of this study is to provide a method for mapping the economic vulnerability of climate fluctuations which can be the basis for future planning depending on the availability and reliability of data. So that decision makers can develop urban-scale policies to control more vulnerability to climate change.