A Model to Predict Road Deaths and Injuries in West Azerbaijan Province based on the Data between 2010-2017 in Time Series: Box-Jenkins Model

Message:
Article Type:
Research/Original Article (دارای رتبه معتبر)
Abstract:
Precedent & Objective

Road accidents often cause severe damage to their victims and have a direct impact on community members. Iran has the highest rate of road accidents. The purpose of this study was to determine the model for predicting road deaths and injuries in West Azerbaijan province based on the data of the years (2010-2017) in a time series: Box-Jenkins model.

Materials and Methods

In this descriptive study, all deaths and injuries caused by traffic accidents were analyzed during 2010-2017. In order to determine the process of death and injury caused by traffic accidents in West Azerbaijan province, time series and Jenkins series models were used and the process of death and injury from traffic accidents was predicted in the province.

Results

In this study, it was found that the accidents trend was unstable in the study period and the best model to predict which one had the least value is the ARIMA model (2, 0, 1) with AIC = 78/38 As a suitable model for series fitting, due to the lack of seasonal trend of road accidents in West Azerbaijan province the trend is decreasing That is, in 2018 there were about 269 deaths which decreased by 7.4% compared to the year 2017.

Conclusion

According to the results, the trend of accidents for the coming year has also been declining, which is a good trend.

Language:
Persian
Published:
Journal of Research In Medical Sciences, Volume:44 Issue: 3, 2020
Pages:
498 to 502
https://www.magiran.com/p2167404  
سامانه نویسندگان
  • Mehryar، Hamid Reza
    Author (4)
    Mehryar, Hamid Reza
    Assistant Professor Urmia Faculty of Medicine, Emergency Medicine Department, Urmia University Of Medical Sciences, Urmia, Iran
  • Salari Lak، Shaker
    Corresponding Author (5)
    Salari Lak, Shaker
    Professor Department of Public Health, School of Medicine, Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran
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