A Model to Predict Road Deaths and Injuries in West Azerbaijan Province based on the Data between 2010-2017 in Time Series: Box-Jenkins Model
Road accidents often cause severe damage to their victims and have a direct impact on community members. Iran has the highest rate of road accidents. The purpose of this study was to determine the model for predicting road deaths and injuries in West Azerbaijan province based on the data of the years (2010-2017) in a time series: Box-Jenkins model.
In this descriptive study, all deaths and injuries caused by traffic accidents were analyzed during 2010-2017. In order to determine the process of death and injury caused by traffic accidents in West Azerbaijan province, time series and Jenkins series models were used and the process of death and injury from traffic accidents was predicted in the province.
In this study, it was found that the accidents trend was unstable in the study period and the best model to predict which one had the least value is the ARIMA model (2, 0, 1) with AIC = 78/38 As a suitable model for series fitting, due to the lack of seasonal trend of road accidents in West Azerbaijan province the trend is decreasing That is, in 2018 there were about 269 deaths which decreased by 7.4% compared to the year 2017.
According to the results, the trend of accidents for the coming year has also been declining, which is a good trend.
prediction , model , damage , death , west Azerbaijan
-
The Weekend Effect: Unraveling the Mystery Behind Higher Mortality Rates in Healthcare Settings
Nader Aghakhani*, Hamidreza Mehryar, Tahereh Behroozi-Lak
Journal of Occupational Health and Epidemiology, Summer 2024 -
Evaluation of the frequency of drug interactions in patients admitted to the emergency department of Imam Khomeini Hospital in Urmia in the first half of 2020
Hamidreza Mehryar*, Sahil Farakh
Tehran University Medical Journal, -
Prevalence and Factors Associated with Preterm Birth in Urban Areas: Case-Control Study
Rozhan Khezri *, Shaker Salarilak, Sepideh Jahanian
Journal of Health Sciences and Surveillance System, Jan 2025 -
The effect of Vitex Agnus castus extract on blood level of prolactin, & compare of its effects on the Lipids level with those of Bromocriptine and Dostinex in women with hyperprolactinemia
Naiyereh Haerifar, Ghoamhassan Vaezi*, Zahra Ghatreh Samani,
Journal of Neyshabur University of Medical Sciences,