A Model to Predict Road Deaths and Injuries in West Azerbaijan Province based on the Data between 2010-2017 in Time Series: Box-Jenkins Model

Article Type:
Research/Original Article (دارای رتبه معتبر)
Precedent & Objective

Road accidents often cause severe damage to their victims and have a direct impact on community members. Iran has the highest rate of road accidents. The purpose of this study was to determine the model for predicting road deaths and injuries in West Azerbaijan province based on the data of the years (2010-2017) in a time series: Box-Jenkins model.

Materials and Methods

In this descriptive study, all deaths and injuries caused by traffic accidents were analyzed during 2010-2017. In order to determine the process of death and injury caused by traffic accidents in West Azerbaijan province, time series and Jenkins series models were used and the process of death and injury from traffic accidents was predicted in the province.


In this study, it was found that the accidents trend was unstable in the study period and the best model to predict which one had the least value is the ARIMA model (2, 0, 1) with AIC = 78/38 As a suitable model for series fitting, due to the lack of seasonal trend of road accidents in West Azerbaijan province the trend is decreasing That is, in 2018 there were about 269 deaths which decreased by 7.4% compared to the year 2017.


According to the results, the trend of accidents for the coming year has also been declining, which is a good trend.

Journal of Research In Medical Sciences, Volume:44 Issue: 3, 2020
498 to 502
دانلود و مطالعه متن این مقاله با یکی از روشهای زیر امکان پذیر است:
اشتراک شخصی
با عضویت و پرداخت آنلاین حق اشتراک یک‌ساله به مبلغ 1,390,000ريال می‌توانید 70 عنوان مطلب دانلود کنید!
اشتراک سازمانی
به کتابخانه دانشگاه یا محل کار خود پیشنهاد کنید تا اشتراک سازمانی این پایگاه را برای دسترسی نامحدود همه کاربران به متن مطالب تهیه نمایند!
  • حق عضویت دریافتی صرف حمایت از نشریات عضو و نگهداری، تکمیل و توسعه مگیران می‌شود.
  • پرداخت حق اشتراک و دانلود مقالات اجازه بازنشر آن در سایر رسانه‌های چاپی و دیجیتال را به کاربر نمی‌دهد.
In order to view content subscription is required

Personal subscription
Subscribe magiran.com for 70 € euros via PayPal and download 70 articles during a year.
Organization subscription
Please contact us to subscribe your university or library for unlimited access!