Determination of the relationship between variability of rangeland species forage yield and drought, to forecast forage production using meteorological drought indices

Prediction of rangeland species forage yield is one of the most effective tools for planning and policymaking of natural resources in each country. Climate variables (precipitation and temperature) play an important role in forecasting rangeland species production. In the present study, the forages yields of some typical species in Ghoosheh rangeland, Semnan, measured using cutting and weighing method. It was evaluated in 30 plots with an area of two square meter, distributed along with two transect lines, for a 10-year period (water year 2005-2006 to 2014-2015), to determine the effects of drought on the forages yield of typical species in the studied areas. In the next step, several drought indices were calculated. The relationship between forages yield of rangeland species and drought indices values investigated to model forages production of study areas via drought indices. According to the values of drought indices SIAP, PNPI and Z-Score, several drought and wet-year periods occurred during the assessed 10-year. The relationship between forages production and drought indices confirmed that the best simple linear regression model for estimating total forages production of studied area was introduced by SIAP and Z-Score indices (RRMSE = 0.1) explaining 53% of production changes at 95% confidence level. The effects of drought and wet-year periods varied among different species so as to the annual production varied greatly for annual species (between 1 and 11% of total annual forages yield) and slightly for perennials and shrubs.