Future Study of Wheat in Iran

Wheat is one of the basic and strategic products in Iran, which has a significant role in the Iranian food basket. Because of the variation of climate, environmental, economic, political, and technological conditions, the codification of a long-term production plan is essential. Relying on a long-term forecast is not a proper approach for long-term planning, and different scenarios should take in to consideration in the future study framework to provide a reliable plan. The aim of this paper is to study the future of wheat in the country up to 2041. For this purpose, PESTEL analysis alongside the GBN scenario writing method with scenario software wizard and MicMac applied to information, which gathered, from the group of experts including university and research center experts and managers of Iran's wheat plan in 2019. These experts discussed the future vision of wheat production and three scenarios including the future (first scenario), never change (second scenario) and historical reversal (third scenario) selected from 18 possible scenarios. In the first scenario, the area under cultivation decreased by 26%, and wheat yield increases by 30.5% compared to the current situation which is the most optimistic scenario for the study. In each scenario, different dimensions of wheat supply and demand examined and different futures illustrated for policymakers in order to reach a better-suited plan for the future of wheat production.