A Futures Study on Convergent Administrative System in Iran

The emerging wave of convergent technologies (NBIC) that is derived from combining four advanced technologies (Nano-technology, Bio-technology, Information technology & Cognitive sciences), would have a rich and revolutionary impact on all human constructs such as organization and administrative system. The present study seeks to foresight the presence of technological convergence in Iranian administrative system by identifying and prioritizing the factors affecting this flow. This qualitative & descriptive study uses “Environmental Scanning” technique to identify the factors affecting technological convergence in administrative system and then these factors are prioritized, by “Social Network Analysis” technique and UCINET software. Then, by selecting two main factors and using the scenario-building technique, the future scenarios of Iranian administrative system is drawn. Findings show that the conceptual network of factors influencing the convergent administrative system in Iran consists of seven main elements. Among these, the two factors of "technological capacities" and "political environment" were selected with the highest value of degree centrality and betweenness centrality indicators as priority factors. Finally four scenarios for the future of technological convergence in Iranian administrative system were designed (including pivot / follower / isolating / silent), by analyzing the interaction of uncertainties related to these two factors. The study shows that Iranian administrative system will be affected by NBIC, But the quality of this affection is depended on political conditions and technological capacities.