The Analysis of Drought and Migration in Rural Communities in Iran in 2011 and 2016

Drought, as a natural hazard, affects the human and economic resources of communities. Negative consequences of droughts, especially economic ones, has the most effects on rural societies. Thus, some rural families have chosen migration as an important adaptive strategy for coping with the negative effects of droughts. The present study aimed to analyze the droughts concerning to social aspects of joblessness and migration in rural communities of Iran in the years of 2011 and 2016.

This cross-sectional study was conducted in two stages of establishing a database and spatial analysis. Drought data were gathered from the databases of Iran‘s Meteorological Organization as well as the National Research Center of Droughts and socio-economic data were collected from Iran’s Statistical Center and Ministry of Cooperative’s Labour and Social Welfare databases. A database was made in EXCELL software and based on provincial divisions and the categories of droughts, migration, employment, and agriculture in rural regions in 2011 and 2016 using Aeronautical Reconnaissance Coverage Geographic Information System (ArcGIS) software.

The rural populations of Iran decreased by 2.67% in both 2011 and 2016. The total amount of droughts decreased in 2016 comparing 2011 (-19.21%); however, the agricultural activities were decreased by 2.1% in 2016 rather than in 2011. The jobless people of rural regions increased by 2.97% in 2016 comparing 2011. The migration into cities was increased in 2016 (+3.77%) showing an increase in migration from villages to cities.

The continuous droughts in a rural area can result in destroying agriculture activities and joblessness in the rural parts of the country. The joblessness of the rural population can lead to wide migration into cities and result in various socio-economic, health, environmental, and political effects on urban and rural regions. Allocation of enough budgets for adaptive planning and policy-making can assist the decrease of drought consequences in rural regions in Iran.