Analyzing the Effect of Internet Influence on Iran’s Goods and Services Trade with Trading Partners: A Fuzzy Regression Approach

Over the past three decades, Internet has been playing a major role in societies, and the rapid increase in its use reflects its impact on all aspects of the economy, including international trade. The present study intends to investigate the effect of Internet influence on Iran's goods and services trade with its largest trading partners. For this purpose, the fuzzy regression method was applied to investigate the relationships between variables from 1995 to 2016. In the present study three experimental models: 1) the effect of Internet influence on all goods trade and services of Iran with trading partners; 2) the effect of Internet influence on the Iranian goods export and services to trading partners; and 3) the effect of Internet influence on the Iranian goods import and services from commercial partners, within the framework of the modified gravity model are estimated. The results show that in all the three models, the variables of Internet diffusion and GDP per capita of Iran and trading partners and the population of Iran have a positive effect on trade in goods and services. Also, according to the results, it was found that the population of Iran's trading partners has a positive effect on the total Iran’s trade and exports to these countries, while it has a negative effect on Iran’s goods import and services. Furthermore, the findings suggest that the effect of the variables the distance and the exchange rate between Iran and trading partners on the total trade of Iran with these countries and export to them and imports from them is negative.