The Effect of Economic Uncertainty on the Fertility Rate of Iranian

Social, economic and demographic factors are among the factors affecting fertility, among which social factors have been studied in many previous studies; However, no research has been done on the effect of economic uncertainty variables. Among the "causes of economic uncertainty" are the increase in oil prices and commodity prices, which leads to an increase in companies' production costs. This increases the pressure of inflation and the supply-side shock will lead to a recession, which is a combination of high inflation and low economic growth. There are also two other factors of economic uncertainty, the global recession and the financial instability of banks. Recently, economic uncertainty has been identified as a determinant of fertility, which is significant in research. Accordingly, measuring economic uncertainty is difficult and unclear. The results of the study indicate that the increase in economic uncertainty of the government has reduced the fertility rate in the time and place studied. So that in long-term and short-term models, the effect of this index on fertility rate is significant. On this basis, it can be suggested to the government that by supporting the promotion of successful and easy marriage, childbearing through legal arrangements, work and facilities, and the provision of supplementary health insurance, continuous education and responsible counseling for adolescents, young people and low-income families. The year after marriage is also studied by all relevant agencies. This study is by documentary or library method and all data are collected through the World Bank website. The statistical population was studied in Iran. For the period 78 1378-1398 and the location of 22 provinces  which  are based on  population-population-selectedincluding will be examined. In this study, panel data were used due to more information, more variability, less alignment, higher degree of freedom and higher efficiency than time series and cross-sectional data and ARCH and GARCH methods.