Measuring the Risk Prone Degree of Urban Neighborhoods in Terms of Spaces Susceptible to Crime (Case Study: District 3 of Ardabil City)

The increasing urban development in Iran has caused many social, economic, and environmental problems. Among the social issues in cities, especially metropolitan areas, is the spread of crime and the formation of insecure spaces in the city. When urban spaces create a sense of fear and insecurity in people, they become defenseless spaces. That is, spaces in which a person feels the presence may be attacked or something unpleasant happens to him. In other words, such spaces, for whatever reason, could induce fear in people. These spaces are the product of a complex interaction in which the lack of symbolic and real barriers, the absence of the definition of specific areas and monitoring facilities, including natural-social and physical supervision, have made the rate of crime and social harms significant. Therefore, the identification of such spaces is necessary to take preventive measures and reduce the occurrence of crimes.  

The purpose of this study is to identify, analyze, and rank the risk of defenseless spaces in District 3 of Ardabil city. The present research is of applied-developmental type and its research method is descriptive-analytical based on graphic methods. In order to collect the required information, first, a library method was used. Also, the field harvesting method was used to identify defenseless spaces in District 3 of Ardabil city. To perform the analysis, criteria such as the frequency of defenseless spaces, population and building density, income groups, the quality of the road network, the physical quality of the texture, social characteristics, land and building prices, and land use were used. In the next step, data related to the main criteria of the research on surface complication (area zoning) were entered and the analysis was based on spatial statistics in GIS. Finally, after determining the effective parameters in the analysis of urban defense spaces in the form of pairwise comparison of the hierarchical analysis process, the weight of each research criterion was calculated according to the opinion of experts (30 experts including professors and experts in universities, research centers and offices such as Municipalities, law enforcement research offices, and experts in the field of urban planning). Then, after preparing the standard maps, creating a distance map from them, standardizing and reclassifying each of the maps, the layers were superimposed using the weight overlap index.  

Based on the map prepared using the kernel method, neighborhoods No. 3, 4, 6, and 9 had the highest density of defenseless spaces and thus are in a state of danger and vulnerability in terms of the existence of defenseless spaces. These neighborhoods are most densely populated. Calculations made using the nearest neighborhood mean tool indicated that urban defenseless spaces were distributed, clustered, and unbalanced throughout the region. According to the above results, certain areas are the focus of defenseless spaces under study and follow the centralized pattern; in contrast, parts of the area surface are considered as clean areas in terms of the existence of such spaces. The result of implementing the AHP model in GIS showed that 45.35% of the neighborhoods are at high and very high risk in terms of the existence of defenseless spaces. These neighborhoods are among those with informal settlements and middle neighborhoods of the city whose condition of the road network and the quality of their texture are not suitable. They have a high population density and the land use in this area is not compatible. These areas have the potential to spread social harm and delinquency. Also, poor monitoring, visibility, solitude and darkness, confusion, and burnout are the most important elements of urban space defense.  The present study can pave the way for other studies such as the study of crime in the city by types of crimes, the effect of environmental variables on crime, urban crimes based on type of urban context, and other related issues. Based on the findings, the following suggestions can be considered in managing and reducing the vulnerability of neighborhoods:1) Preparing a comprehensive crime plan.  This can help and guide the security forces. In this regard, GIS is very important. 2) Regenerating worn out urban texture that often forms criminal areas. 3) Determining the status of ruined buildings (cleaning or reconstruction) in the area, the number of which is not small. 4) Establishing or combining centers with long hours of work time (even 24 hours a day) 5) Locating and constructing law enforcement centers even in the form of smaller units in vulnerable areas. 6) Installing CCTV cameras in crowded spaces and announcing its existence along with controlng the space by using signs while observing aesthetic principles (with priority on installation in vulnerable areas). 7) Updating and accurately recording computer information about the place and time of crimes.