Evaluation and analysis of the effects of tourism on sustainability of economy, municipalities’ citizens’ income (case study: Babak city-Kerman province)

The City called as the second human revolution, wealth Factory. In addition it is set up workshop and contamination bed. So we can say that the city can be like a double-edged sword. So it is necessary for any action in this context to proceed to identify the uncertainties of the possible future ahead apart from explaining the current situation, to maximize the benefits and avoid the least damage. To this end, first the present study has identified state of Maku's physical development using the Holdern model and then he tried to paint the city's possible prospects aiming to explanation identify key factors influencing the process of physical development with a foresight approach. It is used for this purpose of the 27 indicators that influence the process of physical development in Maku City that are known according to experts' assessments at MicMac 8 scenarios as Proponents. Then to determine the likely future, Propellants have been evaluated by experts in the form of assumptions in a ScenarioWizard environment. The strong scenario consists of three scenarios (Scenario 1 desirable, scenario two critical and scenario three) that lacked static status among the scenarios. Overall achieved 21 possible scenarios for future situation of the Physical developing process in Maku City on the horizon of 1404.  The situation of the possible scenarios illustrates four desirable scenarios and 17 critical scenarios. In the meantime, they were more likely to happen. Scenarios 1, 2, and 3 were more likely to occur.