Integrating Spatial Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Models for Evaluating Water Allocation Scenarios

In determining the allocation of water resources, the probable conditions of water resources and water demands are considered as the water allocation scenarios in the basin scale. Then, these scenarios are evaluated in the context of integrated water resources management and from the perspective of sustainable development indicators. The best scenario is selected in order to determine the water allocations. In these evaluations, there are spatial distributions and their interactions are simultaneously the key charaterictics in the decision matrix. These features are not often considered in the evaluation process. In the present study, distributed indicators and simple and integrated multi-criteria evaluation models, including ANP and CP methods, were used to evaluate the water allocation scenarios in the Aras Basin. The results showed that modeling of the spatial distribution and interactions of water allocation impacts was not possible through any of the simple multi-criteria evaluation methods. Simplifying and discarding one or two key features in the evaluation process can lead to significant uncertainties on rankings with a Spearman coefficient of -0.1. By implementing the integrated spatial decision-making approach and applying two features simultaneously, the fourth scenario was ranked first. The proposed approach was compared with the individual models, showing more accurate, with the correlation coefficients of 0.5, 0.6 and 0.7.