Explanation of the Key Factors Affecting the Defense Power of Islamic Republic of Iran in the Horizon of 2031

One of the basic areas of guaranteeing the national security of countries regarding protection of their national interests and achieving permanent authority is focusing on the military-defense arena and the factors affecting their defense power in order to prevent deterrence of enemy threats. Regarding the prevalence of uncertainty in foreseeing the future of Iran's relations and developments in the region and in the international system, understanding the position and military-defense capability in order to deal with future threats is one of the prime necessities. This research is conducted to explain the key factors affecting Iran's defense power in the horizon of 2031 based on previous scientific documents and records and using the opinions of 50 field experts. It is an applied-developmental research which employed a combination of descriptive-analytical and survey methods (using experts' opinion and questionnaire). Also, in terms of time domain, data collection was done in 2020 and its results will cover the decade from 2021 to 2031, regarding place it is limited to Iran and thematically, the issue of Iran's defense power will be examined from the perspective of geopolitical points of view. A total of 706 propulsion forces were identified and then these obtained forces were divided into six categories: Military, economic, political, socio-cultural, geographical-environmental and scientific-technological. After that, by forming an expert meeting, similar propulsion forces are combined with each other, and then, they were ranked and their value were determined using the Friedman model. Finally, using MICMAC Software and Cross-impact matrix analysis, 27 important and influential factors were identified which out of these 27 factors, 10 factors were considered as key ones affecting Iran's defense power.