Future Studies of Family Institution in Iran in Economic Security Framework with Scenario Approach

The purpose of this article is also the future study of the family institution in Iran with a scenario-orientation approach. Considering that this research tries to provide appropriate planning for potential future by environmental analysis, the method of this research is futuristic research, which is carried out using a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. Also, this research is a combination of documentary and survey methods in terms of data collection type. 20 prominent university faculty members in related fields of cultural affairs and some executive authorities in the field of family were selected. To collect information, questionnaires and cross-impact analysis techniques have been used. In the first stage 39 key factors were considered. In the next stage, these propellants merged with one another and fired into 13 propulsors. Relationships and interactions between these 13 agents were examined through the MickCam software. The results showed that the two key factors of consumerism and the plurality of authority centers in families are the main factors in changing the Iranian family in the next decade, which could be the starting point for these developments. After identifying two key factors of consumerism and the plurality of authority centers in Iranian families, four scenarios were developed based on the Chermak scenario model. Among other things, scenario 4, namely, the simultaneous reduction of consumerism and the reduction of the authority centers in the family, is highly desirable for the IRI and, consequently, for the Iranian family, which, according to experts, is difficult to reach.