Prediction of Urban Physical Expansion Using Multi-Criteria Decision Making Model (Case study: Rasht City)

The unplanned expansion of cities is one of the most important issues of urban management in developing countries. Because the increasing development of urban society and unplanned constructions have created many changes in their spatial construction, which has led to the need for conscious guidance and design of suitable living space for cities. The purpose of this study is to find a set of suitable spatial zones for urban physical development.

Rasht city, as the center of Gilan County, has undergone many demographic and urban changes. In order to plan optimally and appropriately for the future urban development of the studied city, 14 ecological and socio-economic criteria were selected based on the opinions of experts and the Delphi method in 2018. Then the weighted linear composition method and network analysis process were used to zoning the ecological potential of the area for urban development.

The results of the implementation of the multi-criteria evaluation method showed that the total area of the region is about 16.12% with very high capability. 29.54% of the region is unsuitable due to ecological conditions and unsustainable social tissue.

The results of this research can provide more study opportunities for planners and decision-makers to take preventive and controlling factors into strategic decisions.