Epidemiology incidence and geographical distribution of Meningitis using GIS and its incidence prediction in Iran in 2021

Meningitis is classified as a medical emergency where the identification and early treatment of bacterial meningitis can eliminate serious consequences, such as hearing loss, memory problems, learning disabilities, brain damage, seizures, and death. The purpose of this study was to investigate the incidence and geographical distribution of meningitis using Geographic Information system (GIS) and to predict its incidence in Iran in 2021.

This was a descriptive analytical study. Information on pertussis was obtained from the Center for Communicable Diseases Control during 2010-2015. In the next step, ArcGIS 9.3 was used to prepare geographic maps of the disease incidence and frequency. Then, the disease prediction map was drawn using the Raster Calculator tool.

The results showed that the highest incidence of meningitis during 2010-2015 was in Qazvin, Qom, and Kurdistan provinces. The incidence of meningitis in Iran increased from 9.77 in 2010 to 10.33 in 2015. Based on the modeling results for Iran, Qom, Qazvin, Kurdistan, Hamadan, and Mazandaran provinces with 78.89%, 74.68%, 70.07%, 43.97%, and 22.93% of their areas (Km2) are at high risk for meningitis in the coming years, respectively.

According to the results of this study, it can be concluded that Qom, Qazvin, Kurdistan, Hamedan, and Mazandaran provinces are at risk of the disease. Monitoring vaccination in high-risk groups can partially prevent the incidence of the disease in these areas.