Identifying future climatic change patterns at basin level in Baja California, México

Article Type:
Research/Original Article (بدون رتبه معتبر)
Background and objective

The global average surface temperature increased by about 0.6°C, and global sea level increased by 15 to 20 cm during the last century. As the temperature rise, crops and forests will experience failure. In Baja California, Mexico, there is no systematic evaluation of the spatial variability of future temperature and precipitation. The aim of this research was to identify how the precipitation and temperature will change in the basins according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate projections.

Materials and methods

We used the MPI ECHAM5 model scenarios A2 (pessimistic) and B2 (optimistic) of total annual precipitation (TAP) and mean annual temperature (MAT) for 2030 and 2050; we also used the HADGEM1 model, (scenarios A2 and B2) of TAP and MAT (2030-2050). All procedures were carried out in a geographic information system.

Results and conclusion

We evaluate for the first-time which basins at the peninsula will be more affected by changes in TAP and MAP. The relative increase of MAT per basin depicted a trend north to south. The highest values reaching 6.0° to 6.5°, the minimum values are around 2.0°. The reduction of TAP will be 21 mm from the baseline to 2030. The model also depicted an increase in TAP in the south of the peninsula (12-40 mm). The northern basins will suffer by reduction of water availability, especially for agriculture activities. The southern basins could be affected more by flooding and landslides.

Journal of Nature and Spatial Sciences, Volume:1 Issue: 2, Summer and Fall 2021
56 to 74  
دانلود و مطالعه متن این مقاله با یکی از روشهای زیر امکان پذیر است:
اشتراک شخصی
با عضویت و پرداخت آنلاین حق اشتراک یک‌ساله به مبلغ 1,390,000ريال می‌توانید 70 عنوان مطلب دانلود کنید!
اشتراک سازمانی
به کتابخانه دانشگاه یا محل کار خود پیشنهاد کنید تا اشتراک سازمانی این پایگاه را برای دسترسی نامحدود همه کاربران به متن مطالب تهیه نمایند!
  • حق عضویت دریافتی صرف حمایت از نشریات عضو و نگهداری، تکمیل و توسعه مگیران می‌شود.
  • پرداخت حق اشتراک و دانلود مقالات اجازه بازنشر آن در سایر رسانه‌های چاپی و دیجیتال را به کاربر نمی‌دهد.
In order to view content subscription is required

Personal subscription
Subscribe for 70 € euros via PayPal and download 70 articles during a year.
Organization subscription
Please contact us to subscribe your university or library for unlimited access!