Determining the Socio-economic Factors Affecting the Suicide Rate in Iran Based on Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

Empirical evidence in many countries shows that several factors lead to the decision of individuals to attempt suicide. The aim of this study was to determine the social and economic factors affecting the suicide rate in 31 provinces of the country between 2012 and 2017.

In the present study, the effect of 16 socio-economic explanatory variables on suicide rate was investigated using the Bayesian model mean (BMA) method in an analytical-descriptive manner using R statistical software. All required statistics and information have been collected from library sources and statistical yearbooks of the Statistics Center of Iran, the Civil Registration Organization and the Forensic Medicine Organization of the country.

In this study, it was found that in Iran in the study period, the fertility rate with a probability of presence of 0.997 with a coefficient of 4.972 has a very strong effect on the suicide rate. Also, the abortion rate variable with a probability of 0.935 with a coefficient of 0.201 is the second strongest variable affecting the suicide rate. Among the 4 independent economic variables, only the unemployment rate with a probability of 0.719 and a coefficient of 0.393 is known as the third variable affecting the suicide rate. The illiteracy rate variable with a probability of 0.758 also has a relatively acceptable effect on the suicide rate. In contrast, other social and economic variables do not have much effect on the suicide rate in Iran.

Based on the results of this study, fertility rate, abortion rate, unemployment rate and illiteracy rate are the four main factors affecting the suicide rate in Iran.