Determining Acceptable Risk by Considering Consequential Damages Caused by Earthquake Incident in Lifeline (Road Transport)

Consequential damages assessment is one of the main steps in determining the risk of road transport network against incident such as earthquakes. According to the increase of existing damages, we are present a solution to mitigate the damages. As the appropriate size of the damage is provided, the recovery's more accurate cost is evaluated. Determining the amount less than acceptable value will increase future damages, and on the other hand, determining an amount more than necessary increases safety, but it will increase maintenance cost. In this research, the authors argue what amount of damage can be acceptable concerning the amount of possible damage to a road and its infrastructures affected by the earthquake and its post-disaster consequences regarding in the terms of initial recovery time and final recovery time. In this regard, the authors provide a method for calculating acceptable Consequential damage based on two social and economic perspectives, including obtaining the expert’s opinions and authorities and investigating the damage to the transportation network. Earthquake intensity is considered in three categories: severe, moderate and mild, and the road performance is considered in four categories: freeway, highway, main and secondary roads.Besides, we used the validation methods for implementing our method were performed in 16 cases. The results of this research showed that within the four effective parameters which had a pleasing effect on the amount of damage are including topographic states, the existence of infrastructures, the presence or absence of alternative paths, and the significance of the origin-destination of the roads; Topographic states has the most effective among the parameters.