Identification of key variable affecting on infill development in efficient texture of central city by using futures study, case study: Shahshahan neighborhood of isfahan

One of the major problems in cities is urban sprawl that is result of inattention to development of inner city’s spaces. For this reason, approaches such as infill development with the aim of redeveloping the inefficient city central texture have become increasingly crucial. On the other hand, the passing of time shows us the inefficiency of traditional planning methods in achieving this kind of development. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is identifying the key variables affecting on infill development in inefficient areas with emphasis on Shahshahan neighborhood of Isfahan by using futures study approach as one of the new planning approaches in solving unpredictable problems and uncertainties. The type of research based on purpose is practical and based on the nature and method is according to futures study’s methods, is analytical and exploratory which in two stages of identifying the primary variables and determining the key variables used Delphi and Structural Analysis method by MIC MAC software respectively. The research findings showed that out of 40 variables studied, five have the most impact on the system and can be introduced as key variables affecting the future status of infill development in Shahshahan neighborhood including: Adjusting the trans locality of function of Shahshahan neighborhood, Coordinating the renovation-rehabilitation incentives with resident’s financial abilities, Increasing resident’s participation, Resolving the problems with land and housing ownership, and Improving the communication and access systems. These variables play the most important role in the future status of infill development and considered as a basis for scenarios in in Shahshahan neighborhood future development.