Measuring the level of social resilience in the worn-out context of cities with a futures research approach (Case study: Zabol city)

With the spread of urbanization, issues such as urban resilience to sustain cities in the face of natural and man-made disasters have come to the fore. Occurrence of natural disasters such as floods, earthquakes and hurricanes often have devastating effects on human settlements, destroying buildings and infrastructure and imposing far-reaching socio-economic consequences on communities. Therefore, in this study, the degree of social resilience in the dilapidated fabric of Zabol city has been studied with a futuristic approach.This research, using the technique of cross-impact analysis and using the Wizard scenario software, has measured the degree of social resilience in the worn-out fabric of Zabol city at the horizon of 1420. This research is based on the applied research approach in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical method. The statistical population of the study was 30 experts and specialists in the fields of urban planning, crisis management and futures studies who were selected by purposive sampling.The results show that 15 key factors are involved in measuring the social resilience of Zabol city, for which 45 possible situations in the future were considered and designed as a 45 45 45 crossover effect matrix; Then, by obtaining the opinions of experts and based on the analysis of Scenario Wizard software, 6 strong scenarios were extracted. Out of 6 strong scenarios, 2 scenarios (Scenarios 2 and 4) are in good condition, which shows the ideal conditions for social resilience in the worn-out fabric of Zabol city, and the other 4 scenarios (Scenarios 1, 3, 5 and 6) in They are in a critical state where there is a need to plan to reduce the negative effects of their occurrence.