Climatological Analysis of Extreme and Widespread Precipitations in Southeast of Iran

Sistan and Baluchestan Province, in southeast of Iran, is covering about 11 percent of the whole space of the country but is one of the driest provinces in Iran and its average annual rainfall is about 110 mm. The purpose of this study was to identify large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns causing extreme and widespread rainfalls during the warm seasons (spring and summer) in southeast of Iran (Sistan and Baluchestan province).Data and Precipitation data of 6 synoptic stations of Sistan and Baluchestan province during a 30-year statistical period (1979-1998) were obtained from Meteorological Organization of Iran (IRIMO). The intensity of precipitation based on 90th percentile threshold and widespread precipitation index of at least ≥50% of the studied area were calculated. To identify the synoptic patterns of the upper atmosphere, the ERA5 data of the ECMWF European Center of Med-Latitude Weather Forecast with spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° were obtained. The collected atmospheric parameters included mean sea level pressure (mslp), geopotential height (z), specific humidity (q), zonal (U) and meridional (V) wind components, relative vorticity (rv) and omega (w) and maps of the upper atmosphere were drawn at different levels using Gards software in the domain of 10 to 70E and 10 to 90N. Regarding the two selected characteristics, three events of heavy and widespread precipitation were determined. By analyzing the daily rainfall data over a period of 30 years (2018-1988) during the warm months of the year, the number of days with torrential and widespread rainfall in Sistan and Baluchestan province were determined. According to the index the previously defined floods and mudslides were obtained for 3 days with torrential and widespread floods that often occur in the spring, which are categorized to three main patterns including: 1- Gono Tropical Storm 2- Omega Blocking and 3 – 500 hpa trough system. The results showed that during the maximum 24-hour precipitation, in the first synoptic pattern, the southern cities of the province received the maximum precipitation due to the proximity of the storm’s core, but gradually from southern to northern latitudes, the rainfall declined considerably so that Chahbahar station had the maximum rainfall and Zabol station recorded zero rainfall. The storm is expected to move eastward as it moves to higher latitudes, but the high pressure formed on the Indian subcontinent acted as a barrier and directed the storm to the west, thus affecting the southern regions of Iran. In the second and third pattern, the location of Sistan and Baluchestan province in front of the trough axis and advection of cold weather of the northern latitudes were the main causes of instability that lead to heavy rainfall. The moisture of these rainfalls was obtained from Oman, Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean respectively. In the second pattern, the anticyclonic clockwise motions of the Arabian Sea has provided the moisture for extreme precipitation events. Common points of all three precipitation patterns are atmospheric moisture reduction in all three levels of the earth, 850 and 700 hectopascals from south to north of the province. This is mainly due to the distance from moisture sources as well as the arrangement and height of the roughness of Sistan and Baluchestan province, which has caused moisture trapping and prevented the transfer of sufficient moisture for the occurrence of torrential rains. In the second model, the amount of moisture reduction from south to north is less, which indicates the activity of the Arabian Sea high pressure and the power of this high pressure in moisture transfer. In general, with increasing altitude towards the northern regions, mainly rainfall systems have lost their moisture and unevenness has prevented the proper distribution of moisture in the province. In southeastern Iran, the spatial distribution of precipitation is strongly influenced by the proximity to the sea and the location of the topographic features. Upper air levels turbulences are the most common cause of air mass rise. The main factor in reducing heavy rainfalls in northern areas of Sistan and Baluchestan is the lack of sufficient water vapor to reach these areas. Extreme rainfall is more likely to occur in spring than in summer due to the appropriate thermal gradient in southeastern Iran. Finally, the results of the study showed that the possibility of precipitation in spring compared to summer due to the appropriate temperature gradient in southeastern Iran and the activity of Siberian and Northern European high pressure, the conditions for fronting in these areas are provided. Since the humidity of the southern oceans through atmospheric rivers has been effective in the occurrence of heavy rainfall in southeastern Iran, rising temperatures in the southern oceans due to global warming can strengthen moisture flows in the future and from this route to affect the intensity of rainfall in southeastern Iran.